Recent Predictions

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Projections
Released - 2nd February 2007

• Probable temperature rise between 1.8C and 4C
• Possible temperature rise between 1.1C and 6.4C
• Sea level most likely to rise by 28-43cm
• Arctic summer sea ice disappears in second half of century
• Increase in heatwaves very likely
• Increase in tropical storm intensity likely

The Full Report can be viewed HERE (Adobe PDF)

Below is a summary of Finding by Sir Nicholas Stern - commissioned to produce a report on Climate Change by the UK Government 2006

TEMPERATURE

• Carbon emissions have already pushed up global temperatures by half a degree Celsius 
• If no action is taken on emissions, there is more than a 75% chance of global temperatures rising between two and three degrees Celsius over the next 50 years 
• There is a 50% chance that average global temperatures could rise by five degrees Celsius

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

• Melting glaciers will increase flood risk 
• Crop yields will decline, particularly in Africa 
• Rising sea levels could leave 200 million people permanently displaced 
• Up to 40% of species could face extinction 
• There will be more examples of extreme weather patterns

ECONOMIC IMPACT

• Extreme weather could reduce global gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 1% 
• A two to three degrees Celsius rise in temperatures could reduce global economic output by 3% 
• If temperatures rise by five degrees Celsius, up to 10% of global output could be lost. The poorest countries would lose more than 10% of their output 
• In the worst case scenario global consumption per head would fall 20% 
• To stabilise at manageable levels, emissions would need to stabilise in the next 20 years and fall between 1% and 3% after that. This would cost 1% of GDP

OPTIONS FOR CHANGE

• Reduce consumer demand for heavily polluting goods and services 
• Make global energy supply more efficient 
• Act on non-energy emissions - preventing further deforestation would go a long way towards alleviating this source of carbon emissions 
• Promote cleaner energy and transport technology, with non-fossil fuels accounting for 60% of energy output by 2050

GOVERNMENT RESPONSE

• Create a global market for carbon pricing 
• Extend the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EETS) globally, bringing in countries such as the US, India and China 
• Set new target for EETS to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2020 and 60% by 2050 
• Pass a bill to enshrine carbon reduction targets and create a new independent body to monitor progress 
• Create a new commission to spearhead British company investment in green technology, with the aim of creating 100,000 new jobs
• Former US vice-president Al Gore will advise the government on the issue 
• Work with the World Bank and other financial institutions to create a $20bn fund to help poor countries adjust to climate change challenges 
• Work with Brazil, Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica to promote sustainable forestry and prevent deforestation